A mere eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains a particularly tough query to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have strung together 10 in a row, they look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for Rogers to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
A reversion to average might be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
